Paris: Germany’s DAX index is zooming in on its record high and has room to power ahead as investors scoop up shares in industrial companies that will benefit from accelerating global economic growth.
The DAX, which has been outperforming most other euro-zone equity indexes this year, is about 2.8 per cent — or about 350 points — shy of a record high of 12374.73 set in April 2015, after gaining 1.9 per cent last week. This makes it the European benchmark that’s closest to a personal best among the major gauges, after the UK’s FTSE 100 index climbed to an all-time high last week.
Home to multinational companies such as Siemens, Daimler and BASF, the DAX has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of a global rally sparked in November by bets of stronger growth and inflation. It’s gained 15 per cent since the US election, which boosted wagers of fiscal spending and corporate tax cuts.
The benchmark is also seen as a haven within the European equity markets in case of spikes of volatility in the run-up to the presidential election in France. Jefferies strategist Sean Darby said in a Feb. 28 note he’s bullish on German stocks, in part because higher inflation is making many alternatives unattractive, such as government bonds. "We continue to recommend selling bunds and buying the DAX,” he wrote.
While Germany’s export-led economy has benefited from a dovish monetary policy that has also bolstered its southern neighbors’ finances, the nation’s stocks have outperformed peers since the US election in November fueled market expectations of faster inflation and higher interest rates.
JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a note to clients that the global reflation trade still "has legs” and that Germany is among the main beneficiaries. The DAX has the most cyclical sector composition compared to peers, a net 30 per cent more cyclical than defensive stocks, Matejka wrote.