"Imran Khan to remain in prison, Pakistan economy very fragile," says global financial report on country

Islamabad : In a recent report, Business Monitor International (BMI), the Fitch Group has said that there is no likelihood of the Tehreek-e-Insaaf chairman Imran Khan being released from jail anytime soon.

Dawn News quoted BMI as saying "Despite several successful legal appeals, opposition leader Imran Khan will remain imprisoned for the foreseeable future."

The report has predicted that the Shehbaz Sharif government is likely to last out at least the next 18 months as it tries to push through fiscal reforms mandated by the IMF.

"We expect that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-led government will remain in power over the coming 18 months and will succeed in pushing through with International Monetary Fund (IMF) mandated fiscal reforms."

However, the analysis made some dire predictions for the Pakistani economy saying that it remains extremely fragile and that growth was weighted to the downside.

"The risks to our growth outlook are heavily weighted to the downside. Pakistan's economy remains very fragile in the face of external shocks," the BMI report was quoted as saying.

"Given that 40 per cent of Pakistanis work in agriculture, another flood or drought would pose a significant risk to the economy. The country's fragile political situation could also derail the recovery," the report added.

With the Pakistan government now speaking about contemplating a ban on Imran Khan's party the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf, Pakistan could well find itself in the thralls of another series of protests. BMI in its report warns that such a scenario would be disastrous for Pakistan.

"While Pakistan's establishment parties were successful in creating a new coalition government following the February election, the strong electoral performance of independent candidates backed by jailed opposition leader Imran Khan suggests that there is significant dissatisfaction with the current political elite. Another round of protests in urban areas could disrupt economic activity," the BMI report stated.

The BMI report also said that Pakistani policy makers were likely to miss their ambitious budget targets, though they would manage to narrow the deficit.