Wednesday 30 / October / 2024
Washington: For the first time since the 1990s, the United States wants to install long-range weapons in Germany. The agreement was reached at the most recent NATO summit in Washington. "We know that there has been an incredible arms buildup in Russia, with weapons that threaten European territory," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in Washington.
After the end of the Cold War, the US significantly reduced its arsenal of long-range weapons in Europe, as did the Soviet Union and its eventual successor state, Russia. At the time, there was a sense of peace, and security appeared assured.
But, since Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022, old hostilities have returned. In military terms, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius told Deutschlandfunk radio that he sees "a serious gap in capabilities."
A question of range
Among the arms planned for deployment by 2026 are Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have proved their effectiveness over the past 30 years — most recently against the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Unlike missiles, which take an elliptical trajectory, cruise missiles fly parallel to the ground at a very low altitude. This makes them difficult for enemy radar to detect and intercept. Also planned for Germany, but still under development, are US missiles capable of several times the speed of sound and with ranges of more than 2,750 kilometres (1,709 miles).
Germany's own powerful Taurus cruise missiles can only travel about 500 kilometres (311 miles) and are launched by aircraft. Tomahawks, on the other hand, can be launched from the ground or from ships and have a range of up to 2,500 kilometres (1,553 miles). For comparison: the distance from Berlin to Moscow is around 1600 kilometres (944 miles).
The Russian enclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea is less than 600 kilometres away. Defence Minister Pistorius believes that this is also where Russia could pose the greatest threat. This is because "we believe Russia has had these weapons systems stationed in Kaliningrad for some time, meaning that they are within range of Germany and other European nations," he told the German public TV ARD.
Concerns about an arms race
In Germany, the political reaction to these plans is divided. By and large, centrist parties support the deployment, while those on the margins oppose it. Scholz's party, the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which sees itself as a party of peace, believes that the move is necessary. The two smaller coalition partners, the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), as well as the largest opposition party, the center-right bloc of Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU), are basically also in agreement.
Representatives of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), Left party and the newly founded populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which split from the Left, expressed concern about a new arms race. "The deployment makes Germany a target," said AfD national spokesperson Tino Chrupalla. "Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz is not acting in Germany's interests."
"We are definitely heading for a new arms race," said Tim Thies, from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg. But he added: "Of course, both things can be true at the same time. The planned long-range weapons may be important assets in NATO's strategy, and yet we have to assume a Russian response."
Parallels and differences to the NATO Dual-Track Decision
This brings back memories of NATO's Dual-Track Decision during the Cold War. In 1979, the Western Alliance announced the deployment of medium-range nuclear missiles and cruise missiles in Western Europe in response to the Soviet threat.
At the same time, Moscow was invited to disarmament negotiations. A few years later, this led to several nuclear disarmament treaties. The Dual-Track Decision, however, was extremely divisive in West Germany and led to mass protests, which were supported not least by the then-emerging Green Party. As a young democratic socialist, even Olaf Scholz protested against the US weapons.
In 1983, German Bundeswehr soldiers also took part in a major demonstration in Bonn against the deployment of American medium-range nuclear missiles and cruise missiles.
"What resulted was the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the scrapping of hundreds of American and even more Soviet missiles," Thies said. Yet, he added, "the path to this was anything but inevitable and was paved not least by the extraordinary relationship between (US President Ronald) Reagan and (Soviet leader Mikhail) Gorbachev."
Germany to develop its own weapons
The deployment now planned is evidently only envisaged as a temporary solution. Defense Minister Pistorius told Deutschlandfunk that "this is clearly linked to the expectation of the US (and rightly so) that we invest in the development and procurement of such ranged weapons ourselves." It will give Germany the time to develop its own weapons.
It may be that the steps have already been taken — including at the NATO summit in Washington. Representatives from Germany, France, Italy, and Poland signed a declaration of intent to develop ground-based cruise missiles with a range of over 500 kilometres (311 miles).
Thies does not believe that the deployment plans could be scrapped if Trumpwere to win the US presidential election in November. On the contrary: "Many of the weapon systems that are now being discussed were initiated under Trump. Moreover, according to Pistorius, Germany is supposed to pay for the deployment itself. The German government seems to be anticipating any possible demands from a possible future President Trump."
How to end the arms race
Moscow's reaction to the plans was also to be expected. Russian security would be undermined by the US weapons, said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, according to the state-run agency Tass. He called it "a step towards escalation" by NATO and the US against Russia.
Thies expects "that Russia will react to the announcement by deploying and further developing its own, in this case nuclear, long-range systems, which could also reach US territory if necessary." Though this is not necessarily an argument against such plans, Thies said, he does recommend "thinking about how we might one day find a way out of the emerging arms race."
