Oman’s population likely to touch 8.7 million by 2040

Oman Saturday 13/May/2023 21:00 PM
By: Times News Service
Oman’s population likely to touch 8.7 million by 2040

Muscat: The population of the Sultanate of Oman is projected to touch 8.7 million by 2040, according to a report from the National Centre for Statistics and Information, (NCSI).

With a fresh wave of development and growth driving the country’s economy, the arrival of expatriates will play a larger role in the surge of the population with the report suggesting a 50 percent rise in the expatriates by 2040, considering 2020 as the base year.

According to the NCSI data, Oman’s population touched five million recently.

In 2020, Oman’s population was 4.5 million but by 2040, the total population will have Omanis and expatriates 4.35 million each.

The report noted: “As for the average population increase, it is expected that the population in the Sultanate of Oman will reach 8.3 million by 2040, distributed equally between Omanis and expatriates. However, if the population rise is slow, Oman’s population will reach 7 million with Omanis and expatriates having an equal share.”

The report showed an annual increase of 1 million every five years, from 2025 to 2040. In 2025, the highest population increase will reach 5.3 million while it will rise in 2030 with the same speed to 6.2 million. It will touch 7.3 million in 2035, before reaching 8.7 million in 2040.

Demographic distribution

The number of Omanis in 2020 in North Al Batinah Governorate were 549,976 and the population is expected to touch 847,387, by 2040, marking the highest increase among the governorates.

The population of Omanis in the Governorate of Muscat will increase from 543,293 in 2020 to 783,891 by 2040.

The population of Omanis in South Al Batinah Governorate is expected to rise from 351,791 in 2020 to 569,174 by 2040.

The Omanis strength in the Governorate of Al Dakhiliyah will increase from 364,457 in 2020 to 534,139 by 2040 while in the Governorate of South Al Sharqiyah, it is expected to increase from 225,096 to 348,729.

In North Al Sharqiyah, 100,012 Omanis will be added to the population by 2040.

Al Dhahirah Governorate will mark an increase of 77,558 Omanis in the corresponding period while in Al Buraimi Governorate an addition of 56,700 Omanis is projected. In Dhofar Governorate, the number of Omanis in 2020 were 215,564 and the population will increase to 305,568 by 2040. There will be a marginal increase of Omanis by 2040 in the governorates of Musandam (23,201) and Al Wusta (10,429).

Expatriates population to grow significantly

The report confirmed a healthy increase of expatriates in the Governorate of Muscat with an addition of 1,040,863 from 2020 to 2040. This will be the highest increase among the governorates of the Sultanate, followed by the Governorate of North Al Batinah where 333,373 expatriates are expected to be added. 

The Governorate of Dhofar will see a rise of 283,371 expatriates.

The South Al Batinah Governorate will witness an increase of 156,596 expatriates, while the Governorate of Al Dakhiliyah will see a growth of 154,954 expatriates and the Governorates of South and North Al Sharqiyah will see a rise by 133,153 and 118,999 expatriates respectively.

In the governorates of Al Dhahirah and Al Buraimi the increase is of 63,992 and 63,106 expatriates respectively while in Al Wusta and Musandam, the number of expatriates will grow by 30,425 and 18,680 respectively.

The report also indicated that the total increase in the population during the period (2020-2040) will be by 3.8 million, including 1.4 million Omanis and 2.4 million expatriates.

The projection is based on the fact that the average population increase for Omanis (3.3 children per woman) and the proportion of expatriates will gradually increase to 50 percent until 2040.

The highest population increase from 2020 to 2040 will be in the Governorate of Muscat with 241,000 Omanis and 1.04 million expatriates, while the lowest increase will be in the Governorate of Al Wusta where the projection is an addition of 10,000 Omanis and 30,000 expatriates.