Monday 23 / September / 2024
Muscat: The latest Brexit polls in the United Kingdom show a slight swing to the Remain camp ahead of the EU referendum.
While European Council leaders are warning about the long-term consequences of Brexit as being “dangerous,” Brexit campaigners who want to take the chance to let Britain take back control of UK’s border have rubbished their claims.
With only three days until Thursday’s vote, some British expatriates in Oman said the shake-up is needed. However, others said they feel protected by Brussels.
“It is a shame that the UK may leave the EU but a serious shake-up is needed and, depending on the outcome, other member states will be looking for a referendum soon,” Tony Allam, a British expatriate in Oman and General Manager at Majan Shipping & Transport, told the Times of Oman.
However, Donna Rockey, a British expatriate in Muscat, said she is in favour of staying in the EU.
Hard to believe
“I can’t see what the advantages are in coming out (of the EU), as we will still be governed by the same people and the same laws as we are now. If the vote is for leaving, it will take two years for the “divorce” to happen, and I find it hard to believe that it will benefit most people,” Donna said.
According to Donna, who has been working with returning expats, all the laws previously brought in to stop “benefit tourism” and NHS “tourism” mostly affect British expats returning home.
Ian Hockley, another British expatriate in Oman, said leaving the EU is about entrenching the UK establishment and monetarism even more. He added that it will be hogwash to say that it is about freeing ourselves.
‘Misinformation’
“The mood in the country is deeply depressing. Personally, I don’t think we are ready for this vote. There has been a huge amount of misinformation and blatant lies have been going around. Very few concrete facts are out there and almost the entire campaign has been revolving around immigration,” the British expatriate said.
“The argument is that by leaving the EU, somehow we can take control of our borders and stop refugees. But that leads to a further point: when I go through every other airport in Europe, my passport is checked by a policeman. When I arrive in the UK, it’s checked by someone in a uniform from a private security company. In essence, that sums up what is wrong with the UK. Everything is about making money. The establishments are under threat,” he added.
The International Monetary Fund last Friday issued one of the most direct forecasts to date, calling the impact of Britain’s departure from the European Union as “negative and substantial.”
IMF prediction
The IMF predicted that Brexit could reduce economic growth by up to 5.6 per cent over the next three years in its worst-case scenario. The gloomy outlook is driven by an expected sharp decline in the pound and severe disruptions in trade as the nation is forced to renegotiate deals with countries across the continent, potentially on worse terms.
Anchan CK, an investment advisor in Oman, said Brexit would have an impact on this region.
“It will significantly impact tourist flows to the Gulf, which have already been negatively affected by other currencies weakening, such as the Russian rouble and the Chinese yuan,” Anchan said.
“At the same time, however, the GCC investments into the UK may begin to look much more attractive, considering the exceptionally weak sterling levels that might be seen, representing something of a once-in-a-life-time opportunity to purchase UK assets,” the investment advisor said. He added that the EU-GCC stalled FTA process may actually breathe new life into the UK’s trading relationship with the Gulf, as well as with other parts of the world.
According to the investment advisor, the EU has been unable to reach a Free Trade Agreement with the GCC, despite negotiations going back to 1988.
“They are currently stalled. In theory, at least, it may be possible for the UK to strike beneficial bilateral trade deals with GCC governments, something the UK may have an incentive to conclude. British multinationals could thereby become more ambitious,” the investment advisor added.
Need to renegotiate
Meanwhile, Tony said the United Kingdom will have to renegotiate with the GCC any deals it currently enjoys as part of the EU.
“Unless there is a substantial change in financial regulations affecting the city of London, Omani investors like other investors will continue to trade through the city of London since the benefits are well known in the financial world. Hence the success of the LSE,” Tony said,adding that Brits who have property in France and Spain may have some concerns about free movement.
“Let us not forget, however, that Switzerland and Norway are not EU members but their citizens have the right to free movement, be it after giving in to some EU demands,” he added.
Meanwhile, Santhosh Kanakandath, managing director at Assaraya Travel and Tourism, told the Times of Oman that the leisure business from UK is the second largest after German speaking countries and is quite significant, both in terms of quality and revenues for Oman.
“The general assumption is that after the British exit the EU, tourism business is one where some kind of negatives are bound to happen, mainly due to price factor. Airfares and holiday packages prices may rise as part of a chain reaction following the new move and any added costs would be passed on to the customers, eventually. This to some extent may push people to cut down their travel plans,” Santhosh added.
“According to some financial wizards, the pound may sink up to 30 per cent and make people spend less on travel and holidays,” he said while adding that Oman may see less traffic from the UK in the coming days, though that, too, could be a temporary phase.
