Friday 26 / April / 2024
Rome: Global food prices rose in May at their fastest monthly rate in more than a decade, even as world cereal production is on course to reach a new record high, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) reported.
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 127.1 points in May, 4.8 per cent higher than in April and 39.7 per cent higher than in May 2020.
A surge in the international prices of vegetable oils, sugar and cereals led to the increase in the index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of commonly-traded food commodities, to its highest value since September 2011 and only 7.6 per cent below its all-time peak in nominal terms.
The FAO Cereal Price Index increased 6.0 per cent from April, led by international maize prices, which averaged 89.9 per cent above their year-earlier value. However, maize prices started to retreat at the end of May, mostly on improved production prospects in the United States of America. International wheat prices also showed a late-month decline but averaged 6.8 per cent higher in May than in April, while international rice quotations held steady.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index gained 7.8 per cent in May, mainly reflecting rising palm, soy and rapeseed oil quotations. Palm oil prices rose due to slow production growth in Southeast Asian countries, while prospects of robust global demand, especially from the biodiesel sector, drove soy oil prices higher.
The FAO Sugar Price Index increased by 6.8 per cent from April, due largely to harvest delays and concerns over reduced crop yields in Brazil, the world's largest sugar exporter, even as large export volumes from India contributed to easing the price surge.
The FAO Meat Price Index increased by 2.2 per cent from April, with quotations for all meat types rising due to a faster pace of import purchases by China, as well as rising internal demand for poultry in the leading producing regions.
The FAO Dairy Price Index rose by 1.8 per cent in the month, averaging 28 per cent above its level of one year ago. The increase was led by solid import demand for skim and whole milk powders, while butter prices declined for the first time in almost a year on increased export supplies from New Zealand.
A new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief offered FAO's first forecast for world cereal production in 2021 - now pegged at nearly 2 821 million tonnes, a new record and a 1.9 per cent increase from 2020, led by a foreseen 3.7 per cent annual growth in maize output.
World cereal utilisation in 2021/22 is predicted to expand by 1.7 per cent to 2 826 million tonnes. Total cereal food consumption is forecast to rise in tandem with the world population, while increased use of wheat for animal feed is also anticipated.
Based on those forecasts, world cereal stocks at the close of crop seasons in 2021/22 are anticipated to increase by 0.3 per cent to 811 million tonnes. While the expected modest rise would end three consecutive years of decline, the global stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to decline further to 28.1 per cent.
FAO's first forecast for world trade in cereals in the new season indicates an increase of only 0.3 per cent from the high level estimated for 2020/21 when trade is expected to expand by as much as 6.3 per cent to a peak level of 468 million tonnes.
