Sunday 24 / November / 2024
Pyongyang: Kim Ju Ae first appeared in public alongside her father, the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, at the launch of a missile in November 2022. Believed to be about 9 years old at the time, she caught the attention of the analysts and media, but there was little debate about her future role in a regime that is steadfastly male-dominated.
By February 2023, Kim Ju Ae had accompanied her father to five events, and still the consensus was that she could not be considered the heir in the isolated and impoverished nation.
North Korea's Confucian value system prevents a woman from ruling. Under this practice, the military would not take orders from a woman.
That accepted wisdom has been evolving in recent months, however, and took a more decisive turn on December 6 when South Korean Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho said at a media event that the North Korean leader appears to be "in a hurry" to put his daughter in the spotlight, despite her tender age, and prepare the nation for a third transfer of power within the world's only hereditary communist dynasty.
The minister's conclusions are now shared by the South's National Intelligence Service, with director Cho Tae-yong telling broadcaster KBS earlier this month that he believes Kim Ju Ae is indeed being groomed to one day take over from her father.
Cho said the North Korean propaganda machine has swung into top gear and is busily building a cult of personality around the girl, with domestic media now referring to her as the "Morning Star of Korea," a title that was previously reserved for Kim Il Sung, the nation's founder and her great-grandfather.
Even those who had reservations a year ago are coming around to the idea that Kim Jong Un is laying the groundwork to eventually hand over the baton to his daughter.
"Previously, I was skeptical that the North could have a female leader, but gradually that has changed as Kim Ju Ae has appeared at more and more military events — which is extremely meaningful," said Kim Sung Kyung, an expert on North Korean society and culture at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
"Wherever Kim Jong Un goes and whatever he says is very carefully calculated for both the rest of the world and a domestic audience," she told DW. "At first, analysts assumed there was a political intent behind Kim's daughter appearing with him, but few considered it possible that this patriarchal socialist society would have a female leader."
One alternative theory that was put forward, she said, was that having a young girl accompanying the dictator would somehow soften his image, even when she was largely attending military events, such as missile launches or military parades.
A growing alternative school of thought is that Kim is laying the groundwork for an eventual transition of power. These actions already have parallels to historic precedent in the Kim family, the professor added.
Kim Il Sung handed over military power to his son, Kim Jong Il. The second hereditary ruler of North Korea then committed the nation to developing nuclear weapons, which Kim Jong Un inherited when his father died in December 2011.
In turn, Kim Jong Un has invested heavily in developing a nuclear arsenal and an array of ballistic missiles, the most capable of which are believed to be able to strike the US mainland. And this is the military power that he is visibly handing on to his daughter in an effort to legitimize her rule when the time comes.
"Many analysts have pointed to Kim Ju Ae's gender as ruling her out of leading the North, but I do not believe it is such an important issue," said Kim Sung Kyung. State media has time to create the image of Kim Ju Ae as both the powerful leader, associated with men, as well as a caring mother figure for the nation, she added.
"I believe now that it is possible that North Korea's next leader will be female, but Kim Ju Ae's young age makes it just too early to say for certain," she said.
Lim Eul-chul, a professor of North Korean economy and politics at The Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University in Seoul, echoed that caution.
"When it comes to her future role, we need to keep all possibilities open and take a cautious approach," he said. "Kim Ju Ae is only 10 years old. And while she is frequently seen with her father at military-related events, there is still little evidence to determine what specific roles she holds or will play in the future."
"Whether or not Kim Ju Ae remains a real potential successor will likely depend on the abilities and qualities she demonstrates in the future and the strategic judgement of her father."
Lim said it's likely that Kim Jong Un is at the very least using his daughter "to project the image of a responsible leader" and solidify his control of the nation.
"There is also the aspect of showing off the fourth generation" of Kim family leaders of the nation to underline the strength and legitimacy of the lineage, he added.
There has been speculation in the past that Kim Jong Un has experienced medical complaints and appears overweight in news footage. His own father, Kim Jong Il, also reportedly suffered from a number of lifestyle-related illnesses, including high blood pressure, gout and diabetes, and died at the age of 70.
Now 39, Kim Jong Un may be hoping that by marking a clear line of succession while he is still young, this will help Kim Ju Ae to smoothly assume the leadership of North Korea when the time comes. But analysts point out that there are plenty of other scenarios that are equally plausible.
