Friday 10 / January / 2025
Muscat: Oman’s maritime location between the Tropic of Cancer and Equator makes it more susceptible and vulnerable to cyclones, say climate researchers in the country.
Citing reasons why Oman faces so much damage from cyclones, they have also offered suggestions on ways to mitigate their impact.
The researchers have shared their thoughts in “Scientific Insights”, a periodic newsletter published by the Ministry of Higher Education, Research, and Innovation.
Dr Ahmed Hadidi, an assistant professor at the Department of Applied Geosciences at GUTech, said: “Oman’s location between the Tropic of Cancer and the Equator makes it vulnerable to cyclones developing in the ocean, and climate change does not play a major role in this phenomenon,” he revealed.
“However, climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of these events.”
Climate researcher Harith Al Saifi added: “The Sultanate is exposed to cyclones because of its location on the Arabian Sea, which satisfies the appropriate elements for the formation of tropical conditions, the most important of which is the warming of surface water above 27 degrees.”
He went on cite many examples of cyclones and hurricanes that previously affected Oman.
The 1723 cyclone, according to the documentation of the French Order of St John and the Book of Al-Nameer, the Safar cyclone in June 1836 which made landfall at a rock in Wadi Al Hemali in Rustaq and the 1959 cyclone called Al Ghariqah, which killed more than 120 people.
“Last but not least; the well-known cyclone that made landfall in Masirah and Dhofar provinces in 1977,” Al Saifi added. “Generally, cyclones affect the Sultanate of Oman sporadically and are spaced out in time.”
According to a study by Dr. Suad Al Manji and Amna Al Rahili, although their number has decreased globally, cyclones have increased in intensity over the years. This is due to increasing global warming of ocean waters, which gives higher capacity to build and increase the intensity of cyclones. Therefore, hurricane-rated cyclones have a higher probability of impact and landfall than tropical storms.
Thus, the likelihood of the Sultanate being affected by cyclones is high. Researchers also found that during 1880-1900, the number of cyclones affecting Oman has increased, with some of them having a severe impact.
From 2007 to the present, history is repeating itself, and cyclones are increasing in intensity and impact on land.
Hilal Al Hajri, a meteorologist at the Civil Aviation Authority, said there is some controversy over climate change and its related impact on adverse weather events.
“Based on statistics, the average number of cyclones in the last 10 years is increasing compared to the years immediately preceding them,” he said.
“However, if we return to recent years, it is clear that the current status of the average number of tropical cyclones is lower than before, indicating that the frequency of these weather events cannot be attributed to climate change with absolute certainty, especially with the increased and faster development of monitoring devices that have clearly enhanced the monitoring of tropical events.
“Nevertheless, the question still arises as to what causes cyclones, and what are the true factors that play a role in causing cyclones,” he added.
Tropical cyclones are given names according to the ocean in which they form: They’re called hurricanes if they form in the Atlantic Ocean and its seas and parts of the Indian Ocean, typhoons if they originate in the Northwest Pacific Ocean in East and Southeast Asia and cyclones if born in the Indian Ocean.
Oman is at risk of tropical cyclones because these conditions are active above the Indian Ocean from May to July and October to November. Cyclones formed in the Arabian Sea account for one percent of all hurricanes in the world’s oceans, but do account for very high losses and damages.
Harith Al Saifi also explained how countries like Oman could be better prepared to withstand the impact of hurricanes, while stressing the need for awareness, preparedness and appropriate planning to reduce their impact.
Solutions include, he said, “Sound urban planning, where canyons are left unfettered, and trails are deepened to absorb sufficient water from flowing wadis. Another solution is to build bridges compatible with the exceptional conditions produced by cyclones, such as flooding, which cause significant road damage, as well as increasing canyons and drainage channels in modern cities.
“The rainfall associated with cyclones is enormous and equivalent to several years of rain,” he explained.
“For example, the mountains of Dima Wattayeen recorded an amount of approximately 100 mm rainfall during Cyclone Gonu in 2007. This amount is equivalent to 10 years of rain over Muscat. This volume cannot be managed by natural sewers, so, it overflowed to its surroundings.”
