Friday 19 / April / 2024
Algiers: Opec has agreed to cut its oil output for the first time since 2008, with the group's leader Saudi Arabia softening its stance on arch-rival Iran amid mounting pressure from low oil prices.
Two sources in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said the group would reduce output to 32.5 million barrels per day from current production of 33.24 million bpd.
"Opec made an exceptional decision today ... After two and a half years, Opec reached consensus to manage the market," Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh was quoted by Iran's SHANA news agency as saying, without giving details.
Opec's informal meeting in Algeria was still continuing after five hours.
How much each country will produce is to be decided at the next formal meeting of Opec in November, when an invitation to join cuts could also be extended to non-Opec countries such as Russia, sources said.
Oil prices jumped more than 5 per cent to trade above $48 per barrel as of 1924 GMT. Many traders said they were impressed Opec had managed to reach a deal but others said they wanted to see the details.
"This is the first Opec deal in eight years! The cartel proved that it still matters even in the age of shale! This is the end of the 'production war' and Opec claims victory," said Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst at Price Futures Group.
Jeff Quigley, director of energy markets at Houston-based Stratas Advisors, said the market had yet to discover who would produce what: "I want to hear from the mouth of the Iranian oil minister that he's not going to go back to pre-sanction levels. For the Saudis, it just goes against the conventional wisdom of what they've been saying."
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih said on Tuesday that Iran, Nigeria and Libya would be allowed to produce "at maximum levels that make sense" as part of any output limits which could be set as early as the next Opec meeting in November.
That represents a strategy shift for Riyadh, which has said it would reduce output to ease a global glut only if every other Opec and non-Opec producer followed suit. Iran has argued it should be exempt from such limits as its production recovers after the lifting of EU sanctions earlier this year.
The Saudi and Iranian economies depend heavily on oil but in a post-sanctions environment, Iran is suffering less pressure from the halving in crude prices since 2014 and its economy could expand by almost 4 per cent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Riyadh, on the other hand, faces a second year of budget deficits after a record gap of $98 billion last year, a stagnating economy and is being forced to cut the salaries of government employees.
Low oil price pressures
Saudi Arabia is by far the largest Opec producer with output of more than 10.7 million bpd, on par with Russia and the United States. Together, the three largest global producers extract a third of the world's oil.
Iran's production has been stagnant at 3.6 million bpd in the past three months, close to pre-sanctions levels although Tehran says it wants to ramp up output to more than 4 million bpd when foreign investments in its fields kick in.
Saudi oil revenue has halved over the past two years, forcing Riyadh to liquidate billions of dollars of overseas assets every month to pay bills and cut domestic fuel and utility subsidies last year.
"The Iranians have lived with a very tough macro backdrop for many years..." said Raza Agha, chief Middle East economist at investment bank VTB Capital. "So a sustained drop in oil prices has a more difficult social impact on Saudi."
However, with unemployment in double digits, Tehran is also facing calls to maximise oil revenues and President Hassan Rouhani is under pressure from conservative opponents to deliver a faster economic recovery.
Oil prices are well below the budget requirements of most Opec nations. But attempts to reach an output deal have also been complicated by political rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which are fighting several proxy-wars in the Middle East, including in Syria and Yemen.
